Christian Schneider

Author, Columnist

Category: Budget (page 3 of 4)

My Little Button

Over the weekend, my lovely wife and I went to see \”The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.\” I thought it was actually pretty good, and I have to admit that I got a little misty at the end. As everyone knows by now, it stars Brad Pitt as a man who is born as an 80-year old and ages backwards – so when he\’s 5 years old, he has the body of a 75 year-old, and when he\’s 75, he has the body of a 5 year-old. You get the picture.

The movie only spends a brief time on Pitt\’s real age (65). And Cate Blanchett doesn\’t show a single wrinkle until she turns 50. But the technical accomplishments are amazing – it actually distracts from the movie quite a bit. When you should be making some emotional connection, you\’re instead wondering \”how the hell did they do that?\” My wife and I debated which was probably harder – making Brad Pitt look 75, or making him look 16. Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves at home.

Of course, the whole storyline of a man aging backwards is implausible. But when we got home from the flick, I looked at my 3-year old son in a completely different way. I began to realize that it\’s entirely possible that he is actually 77 years old. In fact, it\’s likely, given the time-tested torture techniques he uses against me and my wife. I\’m guessing he was once a young officer in the KGB, learning all the painful ways to extract information from political prisoners.

For instance, he has gotten into a habit of running up to you, shaking his tail in your face, and yelling \”BOOTY BUTT!\” And he stays on that line for a good half hour.

\”BOOTY BUTT!\”
\”BOOTY BUTT!\”
\”BOOTY BUTT!\”

Sure it may sound cute – but I\’m pretty sure that is the same method used by Mao Zedong to punish political dissidents. And how would my son know that?

Think about it. You should probably call in sick to work today to contemplate it, actually.

He has also taken to repeating the words of this song over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, AND OVER. As I wrote in my Christmas letter, cultural anthropologists will one day look at my son as the child who changed the saying from \”terrible twos\” to \”daddy needs a drink threes.\”

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

THAT\’S NOT MY NAME!
THAT\’S NOT MY NAME!

Announcing My Retirement

Lately, I\’ve been trying to read as many American classic novels as possible.  I realized I can\’t very well ridicule people for not having read the great works if I haven\’t read them myself.  So it was on Sunday night, when I had the choice of settling down to read Joseph Heller\’s Catch 22 or watch the third installment of Bret Michaels\’ trashy reality dating trilogy,  \”Rock of Love Bus.\”  I watched Rock of Love Bus.

After having watched an hour and a half long exhibition of venereal fireworks, I have to declare: I hereby retire from watching trashy television.  It has simply gone too far.

Readers of this blog know that I am certainly no prude – I have taken much delight in past Rock of Love episodes, despite the better-than-break-even chance I might catch hepatitis merely by watching them.  But this new version of the show makes seasons one and two look like Hamlet.  It appears the show\’s producers have edited out any scene where a horrifically chemically altered stripper isn\’t 1) drunk and pouring beer on another stripper, 2) throwing up and eating Doritos to cover the stench on her breath when she tongue kisses Bret shortly thereafter, or 3) offering to have Bret do a shot of alcohol from her birth canal.  And yes, that absolutely did happen.  Don\’t believe me?

I am out of ways to describe this show.  It is simply basic cable pornography, and I can\’t justify wasting 13 hours of my life on it.  Economists have a way of measuring the value of time – basically, your time is worth the best possible thing you could be doing with it.  So think of what I could be doing with that 13 hours over the next three months, and calculate all the brain cells I could be strengthening during that period.

As it happens, I just read a book that touched on the womens\’ suffrage movement of the 1920s, and all the work women had to do to gain equal rights in this country.  Here we are, 90 years later, and it appears that those hard-fought battles have been parlayed into the right to use your reproductive organ as a shot glass on national television.  Think about it – some child is going to pass through there one of these days – I wonder if he\’ll know enough to tip the bartender on the way out.  Of course, that will be the last thing he sees of his mother before spending his boyhood with child protective services.

Now that I think of it, this show might actually be the catalyst to revoking womens\’ right to vote.  If any congressman saw 10 minutes of this show, he\’d be drafting a constitutional amendment before any of these tattooed slatterns can cancel out the vote of someone who can read.

The paperwork will be filed tomorrow.

A Load of Bull

Everyone now knows the state is facing a large budget deficit heading into the next budget cycle.  The Legislature will, without question, pass some “revenue enhancers” (otherwise known as “tax increases”) to fill in some of the hole.

In making their case for higher taxes, Democrats in the majority will reach for the easiest tax increases they can find.  They’ll pick the low-hanging fruit, usually in the form of sales tax exemptions.  (A full list of exemptions can be found in chapter 77.54 of the state statutes.)  For instance, clay pigeons are exempt from sales taxes, as are dog haircuts.  So Democrats will give the public the impression that all we have to do is extend the sales tax to your puppy’s hairstylist, and presto! – budget problem solved.

Perhaps the most entertaining of these exemptions is the tax break for the purchase of bull semen.  That’s right – semen purchased for inseminating livestock is tax-free.  So it appears I’m going to stock up on bull semen before the Legislature starts taxing it and it gets too expensive.  This actually sounds like a pretty good deal for bulls around the state – with their seed in such high demand, they’ll start getting crateloads of adult bull materials delivered to their pens.  (Insert your own “beef stroganoff” joke here.)

Unfortunately, as one of my colleagues quipped, “this budget will not be solved on clay pigeons and bull semen alone.”  Each budget, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue issues its Summary of Tax Exemption Devices, which details how much each exemption saves consumers.  According to the DOR, the semen exemption shorted the state by $2.7 million in FY 06.  The clay pigeons exemption “cost” the state $200,000.  If legislators are looking to plug a chunk of the $5.4 billion budget hole by eliminating sales tax exemptions, they’re going to have to go after the big boys.

And what are the big ticket items?  Well, physicians and dental services are currently exempt, which saved consumers $495 million in 2006.  Eliminating this exemption makes health care more expensive for everyone in the state.  Food sales tax exemptions saved consumers $550 million.  The prescription drug plan cost the state $116 million.  Eliminate this exemption, and the senior groups might burn the capitol to the ground.  Sales of items to local school districts exempted $295 million – undo this exemption, and property taxpayers will have to pick up the tab for their school districts’ higher costs.

So while we can have fun nitpicking all the goofy tax exemptions within the code, the only substantive progress can be made by eliminating the really large exemptions.  And these exemptions are large for a reason – millions of people of modest means take advantage of them.  And that’s no bull.

Cognitive Dissonance at the Capitol

Governor Doyle and legislative leaders tell us we have a $5 billion budget deficit, and that “tough choices” are going to have to be made.  Yet according to Doyle, none of those tough choices are going to involve reducing state spending in any meaningful way.  Instead, we’re going to see higher taxes on oil companies and hospitals, so we can get more “free” money from the federal government.  Not exactly a profile in courage.

What is truly amazing about this budget Kabuki theater we’re seeing at the Capitol is how the governor and legislators are acting as if they had nothing to do with the budget shortfall.  They pretty much say, “yeah, the economy is bad, and we’ll have to tighten our belts,” as if they bear no responsibility whatsoever for the current shabby financial state we’re in.

Imagine a bank robber going in and holding up a bank, and running off with a million dollars.  Then, imagine the same robber going in two years later and making off with two million dollars.  When the bank finally has to close, the robber holds a press conference blaming the whole thing on the bad economy.  The only thing the governor and legislature are missing are the ski masks.

Take a look at this Legislative Fiscal Bureau document.  On page 7, it details the structural deficit left to taxpayers by the most recent budget adjustment bill, passed earlier this year.  According to the Fiscal Bureau, the budget left a $751 million hole in fiscal year 2010 and an $883 million hole in 2011.  That adds up to a $1.6 billion budget deficit even before the housing market sunk the economy.

Page 8 continues to add up the state’s liabilities.  The $1.6 billion number above assumed a zero increase in school aids and medical assistance funds.  When these cost-to-continue commitments are considered, the budget hole balloons to $2.4 billion – before anyone even considered the current bad economy.  When the legislature passed the budget and the governor signed it back in May, they knew these numbers.  They also knew nobody would care.

But now, with the economy in a recession, sales and income tax receipts are dropping – which makes the deficit much larger.  And, as I demonstrated in a paper earlier this year, Wisconsin is completely caught with its pants down.  Our elected officials are the worst in the nation at planning for fiscal downturns.  We have virtually no rainy day fund and no minimum statutory balance to soften the blow when the economy goes bad.  Most states reserve between 5% and 10% of their general fund revenues to maintain programs when tax receipts fall.  But not Wisconsin, which holds less than 1% in reserve.  As a result, we’re driving our state’s economy on a flat tire – the axle is going to break in half, sending us careening into a ditch.

And you know whose fault that is?  It’s not the economy’s fault – it is Jim Doyle and the Legislature’s fault.  They have absolutely no one to blame but themselves.  In January of this year, I pegged the coming budget shortfall at $4.2 billion.  Months later, the Legislature purported to “fix” the budget hole, but in fact, they actually made things worse.  They can’t say they weren’t warned.

Given this shoddy record of fiscal management, it is amazing that they now stand before us, trying to convince taxpayers that they can “fix” this problem.  In fact, each budget they have passed has made things progressively worse.  Yet nobody in the legislature is willing to step forward and be a grown-up in this process.  The recession of 2001 apparently taught out legislators nothing – it’s going to be the taxpayers that learn the lesson.

I.O.U.S.A. is OK

Thursday night marked the premiere of the movie \”IOUSA,\” which is essentially being billed as \”The Inconvenient Truth\” for beancounters. Basically, the movie is an outgrowth of the Fiscal Wakeup Tour (which rolled through Milwaukee a few weeks ago), which makes tour stops around the country to warn people of the impending fiscal crisis the U.S. government faces.

Here\’s the trailer:

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

Being a bit of a budget wonk myself, I decided to go check it out. I headed over to the theater with my neighbor, who is comfortably rooted in the progressive wing of the Democratic party. (Although, oddly, we are almost identical on a lot of traditional parenting issues – calling parents \”Mr. and Mrs.,\” not wrapping children in body armor every time they hop on their bikes, etc.) The beauty of the movie, however, is that the message is bipartisan – despite the fact that we may have vastly different conclusions about how to fix the entitlement crisis.

Part of the appeal of the movie is that after tonight\’s showing only, the film\’s producers broadcasted a live roundtable discussion featuring many of the economic experts featured in the film. Unfortunately, this extra service cost us – it was only after I asked for my ticket at the counter that I realized it cost $12.50 to see. I thought it was more than a little ironic that it cost $12.50 (plus $9.25 for popcorn and a drink) to go see a movie that lectures me about being fiscally prudent.

As we walked into the theater, I was surprised – the place was packed, hardly a seat to be found. I had initially predicted that the viewership of a movie about government debt would make my public television appearances look like Ugly Betty by comparison. But it was actually pretty encouraging to see so many people willing to learn about government finance and the hole our entitlement programs will eventually put us in.

As I settled into my seat, I noticed a whole lot of white hair on the heads in front of me. This is relevant, because the upcoming entitlement crisis will likely never touch any of the old folks in the audience. It\’s the young people that should be most worried, yet \”Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2\” is out, so – can you really blame them?

I thought the movie was fairly ideologically balanced, although there certainly were points where it went out of its way to embarrass George W. Bush (many of them deserved.) For instance, they interview former Treasury Secretary Paul O\’Neill, who Bush appointed, then removed for disagreeing with him on tax policy. One would think the President has the right to have secretaries that fulfill their boss\’ vision. Yet, when interviewed, O\’Neill goes into detail about how Bush forced him to lie and say he was resigning, instead of just firing him outright. This happens in virtually every business, and isn\’t relevant to anything in any way, other that to make Bush look like a bad guy. It also means Paul O\’Neill is a weasel. But I digress.

Naturally, it being Madison, the crowd began to hoot, snicker, and hiss every time Bush\’s visage showed up on the screen. The lefty next to me honestly couldn\’t control himself. He actually gave Bush a double-middle finger when he showed up in the movie. What is it with these people that they can\’t sit and watch a movie without behaving like a six year-old?

As for the movie itself, it\’s pretty good. Could have used more nudity. Lots of charts.

The roundtable discussion following the movie, despite being a really cool idea, kind of dragged on a bit. At one point, Cato Institute chairman William Niskanen suggested raising the retirement age and privatizing a small portion of Social Security, which drew a rebuke from the obnoxious lefty sitting to my right. You would have thought someone slashed the tires of his Prius. But this brings up an important point – everyone is for fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets until it\’s time to be fiscally responsible or balance a budget. I mean, good grief – our Wisconsin Constitution requires it, and we can\’t even do it at the state level here.

The highlight of the roundtable was the fact that it was moderated by fiscal supervixen Becky Quick, of CNBC\’s \”Squawk Box.\” Sure, she may be reasonably ordinary by TV news standards, but after watching two hours of old guys and charts, her appearance felt like the Phoebe Cates pool scene in \”Fast Times at Ridgemont High.\” Here she is interviewing T. Boone Pickens:

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

Of course, if this movie is a big hit, we\’ll be better off as a nation. But even if people see the movie and understand its conclusions, I remain skeptical of what effect it will actually have. Of course, it\’s easy to tell people that they should \”hold their elected officials accountable\” and \”demand change.\” But the next time that actually happens might be the first.

Your Government, Your Investments

For the most part, government and business are perceived as being in direct conflict with one another. Yet both generally have the same goal – maximizing their revenue. If you\’re a business, this is known as \”greed.\” If you\’re a government looking to pad salaries and benefits of your employees, it is known as \”compassion.\”

The connection between government and business runs much deeper than their mutual desire to vacuum out the contents of your wallet. Regular citizens often don\’t recognize the extent to which government is often dependent on business to swell their employees\’ nest eggs. In fact, governments heavily invest in private businesses, trying to make enough investment income to run more and more programs and fund increased post-employment benefits for their retired workers.

For example, the State of Wisconsin currently holds roughly $80 billion in the Wisconsin Retirement System, which funds health care and pension benefits for retirees. That\’s more than six times the amount the state collects in general fund (income, sales, business) taxes in any given year. And most of it is invested in the stock market, managed by the State of Wisconsin Investment Board. (Perhaps we should turn management of the portfolio over to State Senator Rob Cowles, who could double our state\’s earnings in a year by investing heavily in booty-related mutual funds.)

The State Investment Board is closely watched, and invests carefully – given the immense amount of resources at their disposal. In recent years, their investments have performed admirably.

But for other governments, things haven\’t gone so well. According to several Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, five school districts in Southeastern Wisconsin have seen the value of some of their recent investments drop by over $100 million. They claim they weren\’t fully briefed of the amount of risk they were taking on when they made the purchases, so they plan on filing a lawsuit to recoup their investment. Of course, it will be taxpayers who pay for the army of attorneys necessary to litigate such a lawsuit.

But as pointed out by the Journal Sentinel\’s initial watchdog report, none of these school districts hired an adviser before making investments in these risky funds (known as CDOs). One analyst from MorningStar, Inc. called the governments\’ investments \”reckless:\”

\”They require deep and skilled analysis to understand, and unless the municipality employs its own specialist with specific analytical capabilities, it should otherwise only hold such things if purchased for them by a professional asset manager,\” Eric Jacobson, a bond analyst for Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said after reviewing the CDO prospectus. \”To buy an instrument of this type . . . without any special knowledge or ability, at the recommendation of a broker, is a very poor and arguably reckless decision.\”

In other words, school districts might have gotten a better deal by answering an e-mail offering a once in a lifetime Nigerian investment opportunity.

So here we have school districts making risky investments in, among other things, subprime mortgages, who now think they should be bailed out via lawsuit. And the only reason they can continue on with their legal action is because they have taxpayer money to fund the teams of attorneys needed to litigate the case. In effect, they can afford to spend good money to chase after the bad.

Of course, for the \”greedy\” investors such as yourselves, who may put aside a small amount every month to invest in a mutual fund in the hopes of one day making some money, this option is not available when your investments go bad. In fact, when these school districts spend more of your money to cover their assets, you will undoubtedly have less money to invest. Your higher taxes will be paying for the school district\’s spin to convince you that they didn\’t realize investments could actually lose value.

Let\’s hope none of these school districts teach investment strategy.

Working Overtime in Robbing Taxpayers

It often seems like the editorial boards at Wisconsin newspapers and their news divisions are inextricably linked.  You see a news article one day, then coincidentally see an editorial the next day arguing for whatever point of view you were supposed to glean from the news article.

But on rare occasions, it seems like editorial and news divisions within the same paper exist on different planets.  Take, for example, the outstanding Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story by Patrick Marley that showed up on Sunday which exposed the abuse of overtime by state correctional officers.  Time and time again, the Journal Sentinel editorial board attempts to convince us how higher taxes are necessary as a means to a better quality of life.  Yet, as Marley explains, the only quality of life being served by taxpayers in this overtime scam is that of the workers themselves.

From the article:

On every day he was scheduled to be off that month, he came in for an overtime shift. On two of those days, he worked double shifts.

But within days of each of those extra shifts, the sergeant called in sick. In all, he claimed four sick days that month. That meant he got hefty paychecks because of overtime, but still had time off.

That month wasn\’t unusual for the sergeant, who often volunteered for extra shifts. On 17 occasions in 2006 he called in sick shortly after working on days that he otherwise would have had off. He used almost four weeks of sick leave that year and cleared $117,764 with overtime, making him the state\’s fourth-highest-paid officer in 2006.

The scam is easy to explain – you merely use your sick time on days you weren\’t scheduled to work, and which qualify for overtime.  That way, you get paid time and a half for hours you never worked.  And taxpayers pick up the tab.

Of course, this heist was explained by this delicious quote:

Officers say there isn\’t widespread abuse of the system and note they work stressful jobs in institutions that are understaffed. They blame state officials for adopting laws that put more inmates behind bars without providing the funding necessary to hire enough officers.

Right… it\’s the state\’s fault for making them earn time and a half for hours they don\’t work.  And it\’s outstanding that they use understaffing as an excuse for not showing up for work.  Wouldn\’t it make more sense for them to be complaining about understaffing if they were actually required to show up to make their time and a half?  Instead, their actions seem to argue that the Department of Corrections has too much money, if they can swindle taxpayers that easily.

This report comes on the heels of a Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance report that shows Wisconsin pays their public school teachers 50% more than the national average in benefits.  It continues to be clear that throughout government in Wisconsin, taxpayers are footing the bill for things that don\’t educate a single child or keep criminals behind bars.

Running to the Phone

Big news at the Capitol:

A toll-free hotline is now available for citizens to report fraud, waste, and mismanagement in state government. Call 1-877-FRAUD-17 or 1-877-372-8317.

(Dialing…)

\”Yes, hello? I have some waste in state government to report. I think it\’s a waste of my tax dollars to have someone sitting around all day answering the phones, pretending that the waste people call in and identify is going to make any difference in state government at all. In fact, isn\’t that why we provide every state legislator with their own 800 number? To take calls from concerned constituents?\”

\”Oh, and as long as I have you on the phone, I think the state health plan also should not cover the cost of toupees.\”

The Wisconsin Legislature’s Putrid Present

My wife and I used to have a great family dog. He was loving, loyal, and always happy to see me when I came home from work. However, on the rare occasion, he would sneak into the basement and have an “accident.” When he did so, he would run and hide behind the couch, knowing how little his rectal gift would be appreciated.

Eerily, my dog’s behavior mirrors the Wisconsin State Legislature’s attempts to pass a budget repair bill to fill in a $652 million hole this biennium. Put simply, the Legislature is pooping in our basement, and looking for a couch to hide behind.

In fact, the Assembly and Senate are so desperate to befoul our state’s finances without anyone noticing, they are willing to break the law to do so. Both houses have passed competing versions of budget adjustment bills without either house sending it to the Joint Finance Committee, where any appropriation bill legally has to go. According to the Wisconsin law:

“All bills introduced in either house of the legislature for the appropriation of money, providing for revenue or relating to taxation shall be referred to the joint committee on finance before being passed.”

Now, it may seem that whether or not a bill goes to the Joint Finance Committee is an arcane procedural technicality, obsessed over by only the most dedicated Capitol coneheads. But, in fact, the Joint Finance Committee exists specifically to remedy these types of funding emergencies, by putting the brakes on the process. The committee, which consists of members of both parties from both houses, forces the adults to the table to negotiate and doesn’t let them leave until they have a deal. (An excellent history and justification for the committee can be read here.)

When the Democrat-controlled Senate introduced their budget “repair” bill, they sent it to the “Senate Finance” committee. The Senate’s bill relies heavily on a new $400 million hospital tax, which they somehow believe will make health care less expensive. Then again, this is the same group that thought higher gas taxes would make gas cheaper, so we clearly shouldn’t expect much to begin with.

This hypothetical committee consisted of six Democrats and two Republicans – the Senate half of the Joint Committee. Naturally, the faux-Senate committee passed the bill before it was sent to the floor and passed by the full Senate. Needless to say, the “Senate Finance” committee is not the “Joint Finance” committee, where the bill legally had to go. Cutting the Assembly Republicans out of the equation allowed Democrats to whisk their bill through without any meaningful scrutiny.

Ironically, this tactic was first used in 2000, when now-disgraced Senate Majority Leader Chuck Chvala introduced his “mini budget,” which contained a laundry list of left-wing giveaways. It is believed that Chvala’s bill was both the first and last time this illegal procedural maneuver was used. Coincidentally, this gimmick was revived this year by long time Chvala ally Russ Decker, who now serves as Senate Majority Leader.

Even worse, the Assembly passed their budget repair version without ever sniffing the finance committee. Assembly Republicans merely yanked their bill to the floor and voted on it, hoping the whole mess would just go away. Their bill, which relied heavily on budgeting smoke and mirrors, actually increases the state’s structural deficit by $753 million. In effect, they “solve” the budget problem by giving us more of the same nonsense that got us in this fix in the first place. This is like curing an alcoholic by giving him enough Jim Beam to make him forget he’s a drunk.

In both cases, circumventing the legally mandated procedure allowed legislators to get out of town before anyone actually started to pay attention to what was in their equally-putrid bills. One capitol staffer told me that skipping Joint Finance is akin to a speeding ticket – yet when I speed, it doesn’t cost taxpayers $652 million.

Rather than using the budget shortfall as an opportunity to correct permanent flaws in the way Wisconsin spends money, our lawmakers are more comfortable high-tailing it for the hills. Most likely, they’ll sneak through their final agreement on the first day of warm weather, when reporters are busy investigating why people like to have picnics. But for now, lawmakers are intent on avoiding negative press and getting back to their districts to start running their campaigns. Take a look – you’ll find them hiding behind your couch.

-March 27, 2008

The Press Begins to Turn

In recent weeks, I have adopted a Grandpa Simpson-esque persona, complaining bitterly about what the local media chooses to cover. I\’ve especially been critical of papers who rail against about mudslinging in campaigns, then choose to cover nothing but mudslinging in campaigns.

Yet today, like a ray of light, I caught this article in the Wisconsin State Journal:

A Ruling on Lead Paint Looms Over Wis. Justice\’s Campaign

MADISON, Wis. (AP) No ruling in Justice Louis Butler\’s tenure on the Wisconsin Supreme Court has generated more debate than one he wrote in 2005 on lead paint.

Butler ruled that a boy who ingested lead-based paint chips at two Milwaukee homes could sue several companies even though he could not prove which one made the product that left him with mental disabilities.

Companies were aware of the dangers of a lead pigment used in paint as far back as 1904 but continued marketing their products through the 1970s, he wrote for a 4-2 majority.

As a result, the entire industry can be sued for their role in polluting millions of U.S. homes with toxic paint. Otherwise, children like Steven Thomas, now 17, would have no way to seek remedies against the makers of the decades-old paint that gave them lifelong health problems, Butler reasoned.

The ruling, the first of its kind against the industry nationwide, set off a debate that continues to reverberate as Butler seeks a 10-year seat on the high court. He references the case on the campaign trail as he touts his record of holding big businesses accountable for wrongdoing.

(The link is to a Minneapolis TV station that ran the same article, but it did appear in the Local Section of the State Journal with a different title.)

Finally, we are starting to get reporting in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race that actually reflects what the judicial philosophies of the candidates might be, and how they might rule on future cases. So kudos to Ryan Foley at the Associated Press for putting this piece together. And for those who think I\’m digging this article merely because it\’s critical of Butler, I welcome any substantive criticism of Mike Gableman, as long as it pertains to his actual record.

Lo and behold, the State Journal also printed this article today:

Budget plans may dig bigger hole for future

The competing solutions to repair the state \’s broken budget can be summed up in four words, an independent report has found: Spend now, pay later.

When the Legislature passed the two-year budget in October, fiscal analysts projected a gap between estimated revenues and expenses in the next budget of $896 million.

The faltering economy has since lowered projections of tax money the state will receive, forcing policymakers to revisit the current budget.

But two of the proposed fixes add to the problems down the road, according to the report by the Legislature \’s nonpartisan budget office.

Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle \’s plan increases the potential shortfall in the next budget by $520 million, to $1.42 billion, the report found. A plan by the Republican-controlled Assembly raises the deficit by $753 million, to $1.65 billion.

This article gets it exactly right – it exposes the fraud that both Governor Doyle and the Assembly are trying to perpetrate on the Wisconsin public with their respective budget bills.

So while the State Journal has deserved criticism in the past, it certainly merits praise when it gets it right. Here\’s hoping they continue this winning streak.

Side note: Favorite Grandpa Simpson quote:

(Writing letter:) Dear Mr. President, There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three.
P.S. I am not a crackpot.

Side Side note:

In discussing the lead paint issue, Butler draws the following comparison:

Butler said over-the-top attacks on the ruling by business interests have hurt Wisconsin\’s economy while the ruling itself has not. He compares the case to 10 people putting poison in a water well. When someone gets sick after drinking the water, all of them say, \’\’Sure, our poison is in the well, you can\’t prove mine hurt you.\’\’ But they all knowingly contributed to the risk to the public.

Actually, that\’s a pretty dramatic misrepresentation of the opinion in Thomas v. Mallet, the lead paint case. Butler\’s hypothetical presumes 10 people are all contributing poison to a well. Under the Court\’s new \”risk contribution\” theory as described in Thomas, if only three of those people were pouring poison in the well, the other seven could be found liable whether or not they ever poured any poison in the well during the entire life of the well.

Says former Supreme Court justice Diane Sykes about Thomas:

As extended in Thomas, “risk contribution” theory relieves the plaintiff of the requirement of proving causation, allowing recovery against manufacturers not because of any specific factual link to the plaintiff’s injury but because each contributed to a general risk. The burden is placed on the manufacturer to prove that it did not produce or market lead paint during the relevant time period or in the relevant geographic marketplace. As a factual matter, this manufacturer burden of exculpation is nearly impossible to carry because the court made it clear that the relevant time period is not the time period of the plaintiff’s exposure but the entire time period that the houses with lead paint existed—a period spanning nearly eight decades.

Fueling the Spending Addiction

Comedian Richard Pryor once famously observed that \”cocaine is God\’s way of telling you you\’re making to much money.\” Similarly, large deficits are government\’s way of telling that they have too much money. Yet Wisconsin, despite running deficit after deficit during economic downturns, refuses to recognize it has a tax problem.

Even the simplest budget observer can understand why Wisconsin is always caught with its pants down when the economy goes bad. Most importantly, it doesn\’t put away any money in reserve to help mediate budget downturns. Secondly, it fixes these budget downturns with budget tricks – money transfers, one-time funding, delayed payments, and the accumulation of more public debt.

Perhaps most confusingly, Wisconsin government has a history of trying to ameliorate downturns by raising taxes. Let\’s think about why a deficit occurs – tax revenue to the state slows down because individuals are making less money. As a result, they pay less in income taxes, and buy fewer goods, which shrinks sales tax revenue. It would seem clear that raising taxes on these people would do nothing to correct their lowly situations – it only serves to maintain the bloated spending that the deficit is practically begging lawmakers to correct.

Predictably, Governor Jim Doyle\’s budget deficit \”fix\” proposal introduced Monday combines all the worst of the above budget strategies. The centerpiece of the plan is Doyle\’s proposal to implement a .7 percent taxes on hospitals, which would then presumably be matched with federal dollars. Doyle is so married to this proposal, he actually said \”There is no good argument against taking this step.\”

Well.

Naturally, this new tax would be passed on to health care consumers (sometimes known as \”sick people.\”) Ironically, Doyle recognized this phenomenon when he proposed his tax on oil company profits and included a \”no-pass through\” provision which prevented companies from passing the tax on to drivers. If Doyle didn\’t think the tax would be passed on to consumers, there wouldn\’t have been any need for the provision. The hospital tax is no different, and will serve to make health care more expensive – at a time when citizens list health care costs as their #1 concern.

Another problem with the hospital tax is its reliance on federal matching funds to plug the budget hole. The feds are often fickle when approving more federal funding to bail states out. This was in evidence in the 2003-05 budget, when Doyle wrote in hundreds of millions of dollars in Intragovernmental Transfer Program (IGT) funds to plug a Medicaid hole. As it turns out, Doyle\’s number was pure fiction, as the money never materialized. Naturally, the state refinanced some debt (opting to pay more long-term in exchange for a few immediate bucks) rather than making any substantive budget changes.

Doyle\’s plan also transfers $243 million out of the transportation fund and backfills that hole with – no surprise here – more debt. This is the same go-to maneuver Doyle and the Legislature utilized between 2003 and 2007, where they borrowed nearly $900 million to backfill the $1.1 billion transferred out of the transportation fund. When all the debt service on those bonds are paid off, taxpayers will have paid over $1 billion in interest – money they wouldn\’t have had to pay had the deficits been dealt with in a more fiscally prudent manner.

Doyle hysterically claims that his budget \”repair\” bill doesn\’t raise taxes. Yet consumers will be paying more for medical care, and drivers will be paying more in the future to pay off new debt incurred in the transportation fund. And government will continue to call plays from the same playbook that got us into this mess in the first place. The state\’s unwillingness to deal with its overspending problem in the past is a primary reason it is looking at a deficit now. And Governor Doyle\’s new budget \”fix\” bill will guarantee that the state will be staring at an even more severe problem the next time the economy dips.

Wisconsin’s “Subprime” Budget Planning

The recession of 2001 exposed a dark secret in the way Wisconsin plans for economic downturns. It doesn’t. Wisconsin is near the bottom in the nation in setting aside money for fiscal emergencies, which makes budgeting during a recession a fiscal high-wire act.

Nearly every state in the U.S. sets aside a portion of their budget in a “rainy day” fund, or mandates a minimum balance to protect themselves from economic downturns. Wisconsin is near the bottom in the nation in both.

As demonstrated in this report, even a mild recession, as was seen in 2001, would cause a budget imbalance of up to $1.4 billion  in the Wisconsin’s current biennial budget. Furthermore, the lack of state planning for such a downturn serves as a recipe for more damaging tax increases and detrimental fiscal maneuvers. It appears that despite the pain caused by the last recession, Wisconsin state government has learned nothing. Wisconsin’s budget planning is clearly far from ideal; to use a term which has recently become familiar, it can be fairly characterized as “subprime.”

The possibility of recession

In early 2008, the American economy presents a mixed picture. On November 19, 2007, the National Association for Business Economics (NBER) released results of a survey showing roughly one in five of its economists figured the risk of a recession was more than 50%.[i]

In a speech before Congress in November 2007, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Ben Bernanke warned of a slowing economy while announcing a quarter-point reduction in the federal discount rate. Bernanke noted that while economic growth in the third quarter of 2007 had been a strong 3.9%, indications were that such strong growth could not be maintained over the remainder of the year.[ii]  Bernanke warned that because of the reduced availability of credit, the contraction in housing-related activity would continue to intensify. If the housing market completely bottoms out, it could mean a significant negative effect on other sectors of the economy.

Some experts go even further in their negative reviews of the economy. In September 2007, University of Wisconsin-Madison economist Donald Nichols said he believed a recession was likely. Nichols based his prediction on the “popping of the risk and housing bubbles” caused by the collapse of the market for subprime mortgages.[iii]

Professor Nichols believes that the spillover effect from this housing crisis may have already begun, and could drive the economy into negative growth. He cites slumping auto and retail sales, as well as a survey that indicates willingness by business leaders to postpone large investment and curtail hiring.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University, not only believes the American economy is headed toward a recession, but that the impending recession will be worse than the downturn in 2001. Roubini points out that 30% of the employment growth in the past three years was housing industry-related, and a significant downturn in home construction and sales could cause widespread damage throughout the economy.[iv]

While nobody knows precisely what direction the economy will take, it is prudent for governments to plan ahead for economic downturns. This is something state governments across the U.S. have figured out—yet Wisconsin still lags well behind most states in recession-readiness.

The recession of 2001

In order to understand what might await state government finances in the event of a recession, it is instructive to review the most recent downturn in 2001.

According to NBER, the U.S. economy went into recession in November or December of 2000.[v] This recession was the tenth such recession since World War II and followed a record ten straight years of economic growth. According to NBER, the previous record for uninterrupted economic growth was set in the 1960s, a period of eight years and 10 months lasting from February 1961 to December 1969.

The late 1990s delivered unprecedented economic growth and consumer confidence. The rise in internet-related stocks boosted Wall Street and the economy. Investors in the dot-com boom were making money and spending lavishly. As a result, state treasuries saw large increases in sales and income tax revenues.

In the 1990s, personal income of the average Wisconsinite grew by 57%,[vi] while inflation only grew by 32%.[vii] As a result, state revenues grew from $5.6 billion in 1990 to $10.9 billion in 2000, an increase of 94%.

Yale economist Robert Shiller believes that in many ways, the dot-com boom foreshadowed the housing problems of today. Shiller believes that the same irrational exuberance that caused investors to overvalue technology stocks has caused them to put too much faith in the value of their homes. As a result, housing is overvalued, partly driven by lowered credit standards.[viii]

Despite this large impact on the budget, many economists believe the 2001 recession was rather mild. According to Curt Hunter, Senior Vice President and Director of Research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, “the 2001 recession . . . was mild compared with other recessions,”[ix] and was short-lived by comparison. In fact, some believe that without the damaging effects of the September 11, 2001, attacks in New York City, the economic downturn may have been too mild to be considered a recession.[x]

This fact may lead one to ask: If the recession was so mild, why did it have such a severe impact on the Wisconsin budget? If a similar recession were to hit in 2007 or 2008, what would the effect be on the current Wisconsin budget? These questions will be addressed in the following sections.

Wisconsin’s history of weak fiscal mismanagement

There are several fiscal management tools used by state governments to mitigate the effects of economic downturns. Nearly every state has minimum statutory balances and budget stabilization funds from which to draw in the event of a shortfall.

In the years of strong revenue growth in the late 1990s, states were experiencing record ending balances (including stabilization funds). According to the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), nationwide ending balances reached 10.4% of expenditures in 2000, and 9.4% in 2001. During the 2001 recession, states were able to draw on $25.8 billion of reserves to help balance their budgets. As a result, ending balances had been reduced to 3.7% of expenditures. Balances built up over the previous years served to ameliorate many of the budget problems caused by lagging revenue.

Following the recession in 2001, most states have gotten back on track in setting money aside in a budget reserve. In 2006, nationwide ending balances in state budgets had reached $62.1 billion, or 10.9% of expenditures. Increased revenue due to a growing economy has contributed to these new funds, as states have learned their lesson about the importance of setting aside money for emergencies.

But Wisconsin has not. Wisconsin remains one of only four states which retains a minimum statutory balance under 1% of expenditures. Wisconsin had ending balances of 0.4% of annual spending in 2006 and 0.6% in 2007, and has budgeted a minimum balance of 0.4% in the 2008 budget. This compares to a nationwide average of 8.2% in 2007.[xi] By the standard set by other states, Wisconsin’s government is running on fumes.

In November 2007, Standard and Poor’s downgraded the outlook for Wisconsin’s bonds from “positive” to “stable” based in large part on the state’s lack of reserves. According to S&P analyst Peter Block, “Any variation in revenue performance could produce relatively large funding gaps, which are not easily recoverable given existing resources.” Block added that while the state has taken steps to reduce its structural deficit, “we just don’t think they have the budget structure—which is a combination of revenues, tax structure, and level of expenditures—to achieve meaningful surpluses.”[xii]

The minimum statutory balance in Wisconsin

A minimum statutory balance protects the state from incidental revenue shortfalls or expenditure overruns within the current budget. The Wisconsin Legislature first passed a minimum balance requirement in 1981, requiring a balance of 1% of biennial expenditures. Yet before that legislative session expired, the requirement was lowered to 0.5% of expenditures. This was the first of many adjustments that minimized budget reserves. For the next four years the required balance fluctuated between 0.5% and 1% of expenditures.

In 1987-89 the minimum statutory balance was set at 1% of annual general purpose appropriations, where it remained until with minimal changes for a number of years. In the 1999-01 budget bill, Governor Tommy Thompson proposed a new graduated scale whereby the minimum balance would gradually be increased from 1% of annual expenditures to 2% over a period of five years. In the final version of the budget, the Legislature slightly altered the schedule, and completely eliminated the minimum percentage for 2001-02.[xiii] Fiscal management could not compete with other legislative priorities.

With enactment of the 2003-05 biennial budget, the scheduled minimum balances on a percentage basis were eliminated by Governor Doyle and the Legislature. They crossed out the targets of 1.6% and 1.8% for 2004 and 2005 and replaced them with flat amounts of $35 million in 2004 and $40 million in 2005. These balances were well below 1%. In the subsequent budget, the minimum balance was increased to $65 million through 2008-09 after which it was scheduled to become 2% of annual spending. Finally, the 2007-09 budget bill extended the $65 million figure for two more years, through 2010-11, and set the amount at 2% of annual spending thereafter. Through the years, budget reserves have been regarded as a luxury that governors and legislatures did not think they could afford.

It should be noted that the $65 million ending balance figure for 2008-09, at the end of the current biennium, equates to about 0.45% of annual appropriations, or roughly 0.23% of biennial appropriations. Hence, in the 28 years from 1981-82 to 2008-09 the ending balance requirement has gone from the initial 1% of biennial appropriations to effectively less than one-quarter of 1% of biennial appropriations. It’s somewhat depressing to realize that over the past quarter century the state’s required budget reserve has actually dwindled.

As can be seen above, the 2003 fiscal year was the last year in which the percentage balance standard was applied. Since then, minimum balances have been applied as a fixed dollar amount, which fall well short of 1% of gross appropriations. In fact, it is worth noting that the current $65 million minimum statutory balance is actually less than it was in 1984 when the balance was first enacted.

Budget stabilization fund

While minimum statutory balances protect states from short-term downturns, budget stabilization funds cushion governments from long-term revenue loss. According to NASBO, 47 states have some form of a budget stabilization fund. Nearly three-fifths of those states limit the size of their stabilization funds, usually setting them between 3% and 10% of appropriations. In most states, the fund is set up statutorily; however, in seven states the stabilization fund is mandated by the state constitution.[xiv] Furthermore, putting money in stabilization is automatic and is not reliant on legislative action. In most states there are heightened restrictions on how state legislatures may use the funds, such as requiring legislative supermajorities for appropriation.[xv]

In 1985, Wisconsin’s budget stabilization fund was created to “provide state revenue stability during periods of below-normal economic activity when actual state revenues are lower than estimated revenues.”[xvi] However, no funds were deposited in the fund until 1998, when State Representative Doris Hanson and Mr. Nathan Henry donated $10 and $2, respectively, to the fund.[xvii]

Governor Scott McCallum’s 2001 budget, introduced during the last recession, created a mechanism for funding the budget stabilization fund. Under McCallum’s budget, 50% of tax collections in excess of anticipated revenues were required to be deposited in the stabilization fund.

Under the new law, the moneys in the stabilization fund could only be used during a fiscal emergency. According to Wisconsin state law, a “fiscal emergency” occurs when “authorized expenditures will exceed revenues in the current or forthcoming fiscal year by more than one-half of 1% of the estimated general purpose revenue appropriations for that fiscal year.”[xviii]

The first transfer of money to the stabilization fund under this new law was made in September 2007, when the Department of Administration transferred $55.6 million to the fund. This is half of the revenue collected above the level anticipated when the 2005-07 budget was enacted.

When the $55.6 million stabilization fund and the $65 million minimum statutory balance are combined, Wisconsin’s budget still has total reserves of only $120.6 million, less than 1% of general fund appropriations.

There are several negative consequences resulting from carrying one of the lowest budget reserves in the nation. First, having no surplus leaves little margin for fluctuations in revenues or spending estimates. As has been the case over the last three budgets, the governor and legislature have had to take drastic actions to balance the budget, including fund transfers, delayed payments, and one-time funding. Each of these budget maneuvers exacerbates the state’s structural deficit.[xix]

While views of budget experts vary, an informal standard of 5% of general fund appropriations is generally seen as an adequate fiscal cushion for economic downturns.[xx] If Wisconsin were to reach the 5% standard, it would need to set aside $691 million in 2007-08 and have $710 million in reserve in 2008-09.[xxi] According to the 2007 Wisconsin Annual Fiscal Report, that would make the stabilization fund the sixth-largest single state appropriation, behind school aids ($5.2 billion), medical assistance ($1.7 billion), the University of Wisconsin System ($1 billion), corrections ($1 billion), and aids to local governments ($944 million).[xxii]

Between 2003 and 2007, insufficient revenue growth in the general fund prompted the governor and legislature to transfer $1.1 billion out of the state’s transportation fund and into the general fund. The resulting shortfall in the transportation fund was then replaced by bonding, which will cost state taxpayers more in the long term. Had the budget stabilization fund been funded adequately, this transfer and the related borrowing would not have been necessary.

Bond rating agencies consider budget reserves as an important indicator when rating the state’s debt. The combined effect of a high structural deficit and low surplus revenues may indicate financial difficulties to a bond rating agency. While the cost of borrowing for a state is largely driven by conditions in the bond market, a state’s rating can affect the price the state receives. The lower the rating, the more the state may have to pay for the bonds over the life of the term.

Is Wisconsin well prepared for a recession?

Given Wisconsin’s razor-thin margin for budgeting, an economic slowdown could cause significant problems for the state’s general fund. To estimate the impact of a recession on the Wisconsin budget, let’s examine how an economic slowdown similar to the 2001 recession would affect state revenue collections. State general fund revenues grew as follows during and immediately after the recession (after factoring out law changes which altered state tax collections):

2000-01:                                        0.1%

2001-02:                                        -0.1%

2002-03:                                        1.9%

2003-04:                                        4.9%

These revenue growth numbers can then be applied to the 2007-08 base year revenues.

First, let’s examine state government’s estimates for the next four years. Table 2 shows the revenues expected in the current budget and growth of 4.7% and 4.5% in the subsequent years as projected by Governor Doyle’s budget. Similarly, expenditures in Table 2 are the actual amounts budgeted for the current biennium and increases of 5.3% and 2.2% as projected in the Governor’s budget. Table 2 shows that in each year, the state budget would close the year with a positive balance.

Now let’s apply the recession scenario to these budget years. With revenue growth constrained as it was in the 2001 recession, the budget is quickly thrown out of balance. In this exercise, the hypothetical recession takes place in the 2008 fiscal year.

Table 3 shows what would happen if general fund revenues were to drop as they did in the recession of 2001.[xxiii] By the end of the current biennium, only eighteen months away, the state would face a shortfall of about $1 billion. By 2011, even if the deficits that arose each year were addressed, estimated expenditures would still outpace revenues by more than $1.3 billion.

Chart 1 graphically shows the gap between revenues expected for the next four years versus what those revenues would be if there was a recession of the depth of the 2001 recession.

As demonstrated in this exercise, even a mild recession could send the state’s finances into a substantial deficit. The disparity between revenues and appropriation would balloon to nearly $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2010, before closing slightly to $1.3 billion in 2011. The $50 million from the budget stabilization fund would barely dent the deficit.

The table and the related chart above show a negative balance at the end of fiscal year 2008. For the purposes of projecting the impact of a recession, it is assumed that the Governor and Legislature would act to eliminate the deficit each year—either by reducing spending or raising taxes. Thus, the negative balance is not carried forward from year to year. (Since it can’t be assumed that any positive balance would be created, no opening balance is shown for future years.) If the negative balances were carried forward, the resulting fiscal imbalance would be significantly greater.[xxiv]

The total magnitude of the problem the state would face in the event of a mild recession can be determined by adding together the deficit figures for all the years that would be affected by the recession. In the current biennium, the state would have to figure out how to cope with a total deficit of $1.359 billion—$352 million in the first year of the biennium, and $1.007 billion in the second year. Over the course of a four-year period, the deficit problem would total a whopping $4.185 billion. Table 4 details the cumulative problem if negative balances were carried over from year to year.

In the event this happens, the state has several options: it can raise taxes, cut programs, or continue the fiscal shell games that have produced structural deficits for the last decade. None of these choices are especially appealing. Yet the lack of any significant rainy day fund makes them inevitable.

Conclusion/recommendations

As demonstrated above, Wisconsin could be in serious trouble in the event of an economic slowdown. The state’s lack of a fiscal cushion is a recipe for tax increases and budget tricks in the event of hard economic times.

The state could take several steps towards fiscal responsibility in order to protect itself against declining revenue. Among them:

  • Phase in greater minimum statutory balance levels, ending with a balance of 2% of gross annual appropriations. For instance, start with a 1% balance one year, 1.2% the next year, 1.4% the next, until the balance reaches 2%. Under currently budgeted numbers, that would require setting minimum balances of $138.2 million in 2008 and $170 million in 2009.
  • Phase in a requirement that the state fund the stabilization fund up to 5% of gross appropriations. Require that the stabilization fund be the first draw on general fund revenue growth to the state.
  • Require that all unanticipated revenues be deposited in the state’s budget stabilization fund, until the fund reaches 5% of gross appropriations and compensation reserves. Current law only requires 50% of these revenues to be deposited in the stabilization fund.
  • Continue the requirement that the Governor introduce a bill to spend the stabilization fund and the minimum balance in the event of a fiscal emergency. Require a two-thirds majority of both the Senate and Assembly to appropriate these funds, to ensure that they don’t merely become easily accessible pools of money.
  • Initiate legislative action to make these requirements constitutional. As has been seen recently, statutory minimum balance and stabilization fund requirements are only as enduring as the commitment to prudent fiscal management. The Governor and Legislature have routinely suspended these requirements.

Sound financial practices should not be a partisan issue. Democrats should applaud having a fiscal cushion, because it will avoid sudden and drastic cuts in funding for core services in the event of a downturn. Republicans should be equally supportive, since rainy day funds avoid the pressure for increasing taxes and fees during a recession. Rainy day funds would also lessen the need for transfers from segregated funds.

It is time for Wisconsin to join the rest of the nation in planning for fiscal downturns. Wisconsin’s lack of foresight has led to a vicious cycle of bad budgeting practices and acrimonious budget sessions in recent years, and threatens to do so in the future should revenues recede.

 

 

[i] Rick Barrett, “Risk of Recession Jolts Wall Street,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 19, 2007

[ii] Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, testimony before the Joint Economic Congress, November 8, 2007.

[iii] Donald A. Nichols, “Economic Outlook for Late 2007 and 2008: Recession Likely,” Prepared for the Economic Outlook Conference: The Management Institute, School of Business, UW-Madison, September 14, 2007.

[iv] Nouriel Roubini, “The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years…or 53 Years?,” RGE Monitor, August 23, 2006.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/142759/

[v] Initially, NBER declared the recession to have begun in March of 2001, but later revised that estimate to extend it retroactively into 2000.

[vi] U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

[vii] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[viii] Barron’s, “The Bubble’s New Home,” by Jonathan R. Laing, June 20, 2005.

[ix] William C. Hunter, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Speech at the America Club Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 10, 2002.

[x] Quote from NBER, Business Week, “Good News: Mild Recession: Bad News: Mild Recovery” December 10, 2001.

[xi] National Association of State Budget Officers, “The Fiscal Survey of States,” June 2007, p. 21

[xii] Yvette Shields, “Wisconsin Loses S&P’s Positive Outlook As It Readies $150 million GO Offering,” The Bond Buyer, November 15, 2007.

[xiii] The Governor’s initial budget proposed minimum balances of 1% in 1999-00, 1.1% in 2000-01, 1.2% in 2001-02, 1.4% in 2002-03, 1.6% in 2003-04, 1.8% in 2004-05, and 2% in 2005-06 and thereafter. The budget as passed by the Legislature required minimum balances of 1% in 1999-00, 1.2% in 2000-01, no requirement in 2001-02, 1.4% in 2002-03, 1.6% in 2003-04, 1.8% in 2004-05, and 2% in 2005-06 and thereafter.

[xiv] Legislative Fiscal Bureau Budget Paper #240, “Required General Fund Statutory Balance,” June 7, 1999.

[xv] http://www.ncsl.org/programs/fiscal/rdfaxa.htm

[xvi] LFB, “Required General Fund Statutory Balance.”

[xvii] Ibid.

[xviii] Wis. Stat. 16.50(7).

[xix] Wisconsin’s Constitution requires budgets to be balanced on a cash basis; however, there is often an imbalance between ongoing revenues and ongoing spending commitments in future biennia. This is known as the “structural deficit.”

[xx] National Association of State Budget Officers, “The Fiscal Survey of States,” June 2007, p. 21.

[xxi] According to the state budget passed in October 2007, gross general fund appropriations will be $13.8 billion in 2007-08 and $14.2 billion in 2008-09.

[xxii] Wisconsin Department of Administration, “2007 Annual Fiscal Report,” p. 9.

[xxiii] For a full explanation of the calculation of the 2001 recession see the full version of this paper, Wisconsin’s Subprime Budget Management at http://www.wpri.org/.

[xxiv] If the negative ending balances were carried forward from year to year, the gap between available revenue and spending would be $4.2 billion at the end of fiscal year 2011.

Hooray for Deficits!

Lately, we\’ve been talking a lot about the possibility of recession and what that could mean for the state\’s finances.  An economic slowdown would harm Wisconsin far more than it would other states, since our state doesn\’t have any kind of meaningful budget reserve on which to draw.  And if you don\’t believe me, I have 18 pages to prove it.

Naturally, it\’s going to be hard to set money aside when the state is trying to plug the shortfall that is almost certain to come.  As the old saying goes, \”you don\’t fix your roof when it\’s raining.\”  It would be much easier to set money aside during the good times – but since the state has never really recovered from the deficits caused by the 2001 recession, there really haven\’t been any \”good times\” recently.

As it turns out, the Legislature has recently contemplated the need to set money aside.  State Representative Eugene Hahn, who has announced he\’s not running for another term, has introduced Assembly Bill 329, which would dedicate one percent of state expenditures to a budget stabilization fund.  Apparently, responsible budgeting is reserved for people who don\’t have to worry about running again – which may be a decent argument for term limits.

In the grand scheme of things, Hahn\’s bill is fairly modest.  As the WPRI report points out, nationwide rainy day funds had reached $62.1 billion, or 10.9% of expenditures, by 2006.  Hahn\’s bill merely appropriated 1% of expenditures to assist in future budget crises.  Given, Hahn\’s bill has no chance of being signed into law as separate legislation – any money set aside would almost have to be done as a larger budget package.  But it is instructive to smoke out members of the Legislature who refuse to think ahead and save money for future downturns.

In May of 2007, the Assembly Committee on Ways and Means held a hearing on Hahn\’s rainy day fund bill.  Naturally, Hahn showed up to testify in favor of the bill.  Curiously, the \”nonpartisan\” League of Women Voters showed up to oppose the bill.  In their testimony, they compare the bill to the now-defunct Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) and say they \”oppose it as the antithesis of the real need of the State to increase its revenues.\”  They said that the bill \”contrasts with purpose of the \’rainy day fund\’ which is to ensure revenues are available despite shortfalls in tax and other revenue collection which are due to swings in the economy.\”

(To see an actual copy of the League of Women Voters\’ testimony, click here.)

Trying to parse such incoherence is impossible.  Basically, they\’re saying that the state\’s biggest problem is that they don\’t collect enough in taxes.  Yet even if they achieved their \”high tax utopia,\” (we\’re already there, incidentally) there would still be substantial deficits in times of declining revenues.  In fact, the more the state relies on taxes, the bigger the crash will be when a recession hits.  It appears that rather than using money saved up, they would much rather increase taxes during an economic downturn, which would further punish people who are out of work or making less in salary.

(By the way, ladies,  aren\’t you glad the League of Women Voters speaks for you? Apparently, a requirement of being a \”woman\” in Wisconsin is to push for more income and more spending.  Something Wisconsin husbands figured out years ago.  Am I right guys?  Hello?  Is this thing on?) 

Despite the fact that their position will likely send the state careening into economic discord, it appears they were convincing to a number of members of the committee.  When the committee voted on the bill in July,  it passed by an 8-to-5 margin:  Republicans Kerman, Lothian, Hahn, Jeskewitz, Wood, Pridemore and Strachota were joined by Democrat Bob Ziegelbauer in favor.  Democrats Steinbrink, Fields, Hebl, Toles and Kessler all voted to protect Wisconsin\’s standing as the worst-budgeting state in the nation.

———–

In other news, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau today estimated a $300 to $400 million shortfall in the current biennium.  My paper assumed a $408 million shortfall this biennium, based on the length and depth of the 2001 recession.  So it appears my estimates may be pretty close.  (In fact, the LFB memo essentially says they\’ll get back to us in February – so my $408 estimate may be enough to get me to the Showcase Showdown.)

In Governor Doyle\’s State of the State speech last night, he bragged that the state had \”cut spending, cut taxes, and deposited $50 million in a rainy day fund.\”  Set aside, for a moment, the laughable notion that this past budget cut taxes and spending.

In fact, Doyle was required to deposit that $50 million in the budget stabilization fund by a little-known law passed in Governor McCallum\’s 2001 budget.  The provision, tucked away in the 2001-03 budget, required half the state\’s unanticipated revenue be placed in the rainy day fund.  Had that provision not existed, I think we all know what the chances are that Doyle would have set that money aside.

So thank you, Governor McCallum.  Your assistance in writing Jim Doyle\’s talking points is duly noted.

Get Ready to Fumigate the Assembly

Great news in the Overblown Political Theater department:

Rep. Nelson: Begins sit-in to protest budget impasse
10/18/2007

Contact: Rep. Nelson
608-266-2418 (office)
920-475-6221 (cell)

Democratic Assemblyman to remain in Assembly chambers, ready to work, 24 hours a day 7 days a week until budget passes

MADISON – Rep. Tom Nelson (D-Kaukauna) will begin a sit-in today at 9 a.m. in the Wisconsin State Assembly chambers.

Nelson will remain at his desk, ready to work, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week until a budget proposal is brought to the Assembly and passes both the Assembly and Senate.

The budget is 109 days past due and Wisconsin remains the only state to not have passed a budget.

And this is supposed to speed up the budget?  Who wouldn\’t want to see this train wreck evolve for the next month?  I demand full-time coverage on WisconsinEye.  After three weeks, he\’ll look like Ron Burgundy after his crash (complete with \”milk was a bad choice\” moment.)

Next time the Assembly is on the floor, look for introduction of a joint resolution memorializing Tom Nelson to put his shoes back on.  \”Mr. Speaker, unanimous consent to have Representative Nelson remove his Doritos from my desk.\”

Incidentally, while Nelson plays out this malodorous charade at his desk, he will continue to receive his state paycheck.  Why, you may ask?  Well, because state government is still spending the same amount of money it spent last year.

So, in a show of solidarity, I vow to ridicule Tom Nelson for 24 hours a day until the budget is passed.

Budget Deadline Follies

As the state budget drags along over 100 days past due, you\’ll hear all kinds of rhetoric about how much damage the late budget is doing to the state.  In fact, the most damaging consequence the late budget has wrought upon our state is terrible political commentary.

Take this editorial by Neil Heinen of Madison\’s Channel 3.  In bemoaning the late budget, Heinen says:

The Wisconsin State Legislature has become dysfunctional, ineffectual, and counter-productive. It is an embarrassment and it is harming the state\’s reputation and image. And the few good public servants in its ranks can do nothing. It is time for fundamental change.

The most important change will only come with reform of the redistricting process and the way campaigns are financed. Currently, government is pretty much run by rabidly partisan legislative staff members whose jobs are basically to cater to special interest money and keep it flowing. There is no longer even a façade of caring for the interests of the citizens of this state or responsible public policy. Cash and reelection are all that matter.

However, those changes are a ways off yet. In the meantime, there must be limits placed on the ineptitude we allow during the biennial budget process. The system has to change. The best idea we\’ve heard is from University of Wisconsin professor John Sharpless who suggests giving the Legislature 90 days to pass a budget. If it fails, dissolve the Legislature and hold new elections. Would that we could to that today.

So he hits all the usual lefty talking points – the budget is being held up because of fundraising, legislators are too partisan, and on and on.  (I attempted to debunk the whole \”fundraising is holding up the budget\” talking point here.)  It\’s funny that he says legislators have given up on caring for the people – I would think that Assembly Republicans believe strongly that dodging $1 billion in new taxes helps regular people quite a bit.  Conversely, Democrats likely thought their universal health care plan (which held the budget up for months) helps people with no health insurance a great deal.

The real kicker here is his solution to the whole budget impasse.  Sure, let\’s just throw the Legislature out 90 days after a budget is due.  You don\’t think Judy Robson (the Senate Democratic Majority Leader) wouldn\’t want a new election right now?  The Assembly is barely in Republican control, and would likely flip to the Democrats.  So if one party were in control of one house and wanted to take a shot at gaining a majority in the other house, delaying a budget would be the most sensible thing to do.

Furthermore, he actually thinks holding an election during a budget is going to lessen the influence of money on the political process?  If anything, fundraising influence would explode during a mid-budget election.  So let\’s recap – campaigns are bad, so in order to clean up the budget process, we need to have more of them.  Maybe in order to stop sex predators, we should just let them babysit more often.

I realize giving this half-baked plan even a minute\’s worth of thought is a waste of time.  But asking our media to think through what they say shouldn\’t really be too much to ask.  Instead, we get obnoxious coverage by people incapable of stringing together a coherent point.

« Older posts Newer posts »