Political ads can sometimes be pretty entertaining if you look for the right things.

Barack Obama is currently running an ad in Wisconsin that seeks to answer Hillary Clinton’s charge that he has refused to debate her. In the ad, he takes some policy shots at Clinton:

Generally, claims made in an ad are backed up by a citation. There doesn’t have to be one, but most campaigns add one to look official. Rarely does anyone look up the sources of these citations – and some tend to be quite a stretch.

Obama has pretty much dropped all pretense that he’s citing anything. In the ad, he claims his health care plan saves $2500 for a typical family. The source of this figure? BarackObama.com. And how do we know his housing plan cracks down on crooked lenders? Once again, it says so at his website, BarackObama.com. Certainly, a rock-solid source.

To see how noted independent health care expert Barack Obama comes to this $2,500 figure, his plan can be read here.  The plan includes groundbreaking initiatives such as:

Affordable premiums, co-pays and deductibles. Participants will be charged fair premiums and minimal co-pays for deductibles for preventive services.

Yep, that should about do it.

Now if only I could get BarackObama.com to tell me that I needed a new flat screen TV. Then I could cite it when I make my pitch to my wife.

After seeing Mike Huckabee this morning, I was fired up to go see the First Black President (Bill Clinton), whose wife might actually lose the the presidency to the Second Black President (Barack Obama). Sure, Huckabee is a great speaker, but Bill Clinton is Bill Clinton. If you saw Mike Huckabee in a Denny’s, you’d say to yourself “hey, there’s Mike Huckabee,” and go on eating your huevos rancheros. Bill Clinton is the former leader of the free world – for 8 years, from what I understand.

I was interested in seeing how rough Clinton would get with Obama. In Wisconsin, Obama isn’t a candidate – Obama is a way of life. It’s clear Wisconsin is getting the South Carolina treatment from the Clintons – Hillary looks ahead to more favorable states, while Bill stays behind and takes shots at The Chosen One.

This morning, I told my 4-year old daughter (who first endorsed Obama, then Clinton, now McCain) that I was going to see Hillary’s husband. I then threw in, as an afterthought, “oh yeah, he used to be president, too.” Then I realized how crazy that must sound to a 4-year old. She probably thinks there’s a pool of, like, three people that are allowed to run for president. It doesn’t help that Hillary’s husband was sandwiched by a father and son. Nuts.

Clinton’s speech was held in a barn. Literally. The Stock Pavilion on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is a campus building where livestock shows are held. When I showed up at 12:30 (show time was 1:30, so I thought I’d get there early so I didn’t get Obama’d), there were probably 50 to 100 people in line. It became clear to me, however, that the wait to get in was going to be outside in the 25 degree weather. I thought I’d tough it out, just to get a real sense of what attending one of these events is for the regular folk. I mean, any press person can hop from event to event – it takes determination to stick it out in freezing cold weather.

In front of me in line was a group of giggling college girls, not all of them Clinton supporters. One of them actually had a Barack Obama ringtone on her phone. When she got a call, her phone boomed, “YES WE CAN! YES WE CAN!” The girls struck up an interesting political conversation. One said she thought McCain was creepy, and didn’t like him “because he’d probably die.” She said she might vote for him if he picked Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. Another girl, excited to see Bill Clinton, said “what if I get to touch him?” No joke really necessary there.

The wait went on and on, as did the freezing cold. After about 45 minutes, I felt like the muscles in my legs had the texture of beef jerky. The line grew to about 100 yards long, although dozens of people cut in line right up to the front. These people were easy to spot – they’d start out in the street, sizing up the line. They would then flip open their cell phone and pretend to call someone at the front of the line. Finally, they would start waving to their supposed “friend,” and begin working their way through the crowd. At least 20 people pulled the same maneuver, causing a bit of friction among the people who had been freezing there for an hour.

As we waited in line outside, several Hillary volunteers began canvassing the crowd with clipboards to get people to “sign in.” They implied that you had to sign up to get in to the event, which I knew was complete nonsense. Yet it seemed that hundreds of people complied, so best of luck to them getting off that mailing list.

Finally, the Clinton campaign provided some much-needed hope. A front door flew open, and with it the smell of cow manure from the pavilion. This was the most welcome cow manure smell ever – but also likely served as a harbinger for the speech we were about to hear inside. (I’ll be here all week, folks.)

As I walked in the door and got patted down, I noticed that the sign up tables were being staffed primarily by attractive, thin, well-dressed young women. I felt ashamed of myself for immediately assuming they were from out of town. One of them slapped a Hillary sticker on my chest, which I didn’t necessarily mind. I’m probably third in line to being the next Hillary Clinton campaign manager, anyway. When in the Stock Pavilion, do as the cows do, as they say…

Once inside, I got a good look at the almost-empty pavilion. I was told it seats about 2,000 people. The gray, concrete seats form a disinviting bowl around the livestock area. I guess if your clientele is mainly livestock, there’s really no need to go for aesthetic charm in a barn. The floor, naturally, is all dirt. The aluminum ceiling is painted black, with large metal beams holding it up. The press area is roped off in the middle of the dirt area, and ten cameras are already set up on a large platform.

As the people file in, it is clear that one of the most important jobs for Hillary’s staff is to get the right people behind the podium, in camera range. It appears that one of the best strategies for placement behind Clinton is to be in a group wearing similarly-colored t-shirts. AFSCME union workers wearing their signature green shirts were all herded up to the front. The red t-shirt wearing “non-partisan” AARP of Wisconsin members were seated to the lower right behind the podium. I’m 100% sure I could start a group demanding thicker and fuller mustaches, get some friends to wear the same purple t-shirt, and we’d be plopped right behind the podium at the next Hillary event. Viva la Mustache!

Aside from the t-shirt wearers, there appears to be a hierarchy of who gets to be human wallpaper at these events. The pecking order of who gets to sit up front behind the podium for Democratic events seems to be: 1. Veteran wearing a hat; 2. Anyone in a wheelchair; 3. People wearing similarly-colored t-shirts; 4. Anyone wearing some kind of ethnic clothing.

With regard to #4: A young man wearing a Puerto Rico shirt was shuffled up to the front by one of Hillary’s staffers. As a test, I think people should start showing up to these events in over-the-top ethnic attire. You’d watch one of Bill Clinton’s speeches and see an Italian guy with a big curly mustache flipping a pizza, some people wearing lederhosen gulping beer, and some samurai warriors eating egg rolls.

Up in the crowd, a cute girl wearing a tight t-shirt is holding a heart-shaped sign that says “BILL, WILL YOU BE MY VALENTINE?” This is EXACTLY what Clinton needs at one of his rallies. This would be like an Obama supporter showing up at an Obama rally with a sign that said “Hey, Barack – WANNA DO SOME BLOW?”

Some of the young crowd members around me start to chatter about politics. One Hillary supporter actually says he doesn’t mind McCain because he thinks given McCain’s POW experience, that he won’t rush the U.S. into war – since he knows first-hand the toll it takes on soldiers. I almost had to pinch myself to see if I actually was at a political rally. Certainly the last place you expected to hear a level-headed comment. It’s like seeing the Pope in a strip club.

The girl behind me said she was going to call her sister and brag, because her sister is a huge Bill Clinton fan. In fact, she’s such a fan, her sister named her cat “Clinton.” Again, the jokes write themselves.

Finally, some unidentified woman got up on stage to remind us that in addition to today being Valentine’s Day, tomorrow is a day that’s equally as important – Susan B. Anthony’s birthday! If I now have to go buy my wife some Susan B. Anthony candy and flowers, me and that broad are going to fight.

She went on to say how much Hillary had fought for “kids’ issues.” I started wondering what these “kids’ issues” might be. The biggest issue my son seems to have is not being able to get Mr. Potato Head’s nose on straight. If Hillary can come over and do that for him, she might get his vote. She also remarked how successful Hillary has been at “strengthening women.” Presumably, this was in Hillary’s brief career as a personal trainer.

This woman, whose name I will likely never know, said that while George W. Bush had promised to “invest” in renewable fuels, Hillary had promised to “re-invest” in renewable fuels. So for those of you at home who need to update your liberal language dictionaries, the order of commitment to expanded government programs is now:

1. “Re-investing”

2. “Investing”

On came Congresswoman Hilda Solis of California, who was supposed to impress us because… she came all the way from California! This point is made about five times during the speeches. But I can guarantee no part of Hilda Solis’ trip to Wisconsin was as unpleasant as the time I just spent waiting outside the pavilion. The crowd remains unimpressed, and provides milquetoast applause.

Solis recalled a time long ago in 1992, when Hillary Clinton came to her Congressional district to help her win her first election. “I said to myself then,” said Solis, “that this woman was going somewhere.” Of course, Hillary was about to become the first lady, as her husband was running for President. Thanks, Nostradamus.

Solis pushed the fact that Hillary is going to fight “climate change.” It was wise of her not to say Hillary’s going to fight “global warming” to a crowd that had just spent freezing their asses off for more than an hour outside. “Climate change” lets Democrats claim that any time the needle moves, something’s wrong.

Finally, Solis took a shot at “Milwaukee right wing radio,” saying that “some host” told people the Clinton event in Waukesha was postponed. Without knowing what had happened, I immediately knew who she was talking about, and how likely her charge was to be completely made up. As it turns out, it was.

Before Solis exited, she demanded a “big round of applause for Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk!” The crowd immediately groaned, and Falk, over on the side of the podium, cracked a big smile. “…and President Bill Clinton!” added Solis. The crowd stood and cheered their rock star.

Falk approached the podium, and began talking about Hillary. She said Hillary Clinton was the “first presidential candidate to have a plan for the economy,” which made me chuckle. As if Barack Obama was sitting around a month ago, turned to his advisors and said “Hillary keeps talking about ‘the economy.’ What’s all that ‘economy’ talk about?”

Falk introduces Bill Clinton, who cuts a radiant figure on stage. He is thin, tan, and appears energetic. He launches into a criticism of Republicans’ health care policies. “Raise your hand if you know someone who doesn’t have health care,” he implores the crowd. Nearly everyone does. He reiterates his support for universal health care. Later, he will likely be surprised to realize that he was actually President for 8 years, and never enacted universal health care. No need to point that out now, though – he’s on a roll.

Knowing he has to be extremely subtle in his attacks against Obama, Clinton gingerly rolls out the newest talking point. “Solutions are better than speeches,” he says, intimating that while Obama is a great speaker, he’s short on accomplishments. Much of his talk focuses on this point. (The full speech will likely be available on the internet soon, so there’s no need to go into great detail about its content.)

Clinton’s speech rambles on for a while, and the crowd begins to lose a little air. The guy behind the podium who was inexplicably waving a copy of Clinton’s autobiography in the air for the first 20 minutes of the speech has ceased. Clinton says Hillary is going to help the “victims” of the subprime lending crisis. He says one of his wife’s basic tenets is that we should make the world better “for our grandchildren.” Finally, someone has the guts to look out for the grandkids. He tries to peddle the line that New York State is actually very Republican, and Hillary helps those people anyway. He says the way to turn the economy around is through a better environment. (On the way out of the speech, I ask a squirrel for a job, and he hands me a business card and tells me he’ll get back to me.)

At one point, Clinton looks like he’s going to make a personal concession. “Full disclosure…” he says. Now when someone says “full disclosure,” they’re generally about to tell you something that conflicts with their eventual point. Something like “full disclosure – I have bought several Michael Bolton albums, but I think he doesn’t have any talent.” Something like that. Instead, Clinton’s point is something like, “full disclosure – Hillary thinks we should take care of veterans.” And that’s it. Somewhere, the devious anti-veteran interest groups are shaking their fists.

Clinton closed his speech out by bragging about the $13 million Hillary has raised since Super Tuesday two weeks ago. Obama has raised $32 million in the last month. He said that was enough “to make this a contest.” Obviously, Clinton is pitching his wife as a large underdog – a claim the polls tend to bear out. He ends his speech by saying Hillary is “a problem solver.” I’ll be sure to call her with questions about my Algebra homework.

At this point, I had been standing for four hours. Clinton descended on my side of the barrier, where I was only about three people deep. He reached into the crowd, which surged forward to meet him. His hand actually swung right by my head. I reached up, shook his hand, and bolted.

I walked 20 minutes in the snow back to my car, only to find that I had become the “victim” of a parking ticket. Time to call Hillary Clinton for help.

As I approached the Concourse Hotel in Madison this morning, I noticed something strange. Parking spots. A major presidential candidate was speaking here this morning, and there were empty parking spots right across the street. There may have been even more had the Huckabus not been taking up three of them.

Huckabee faces an impossible road in the Republican primary. John McCain will be the GOP nominee, yet Huckabee soldiers on with little money and no chance. As the Robbie Fulks song says, he’s “forgotten but not gone.”

Yet one of the reasons Huckabee is still standing is his preternatural speaking ability – which is why I was excited to go see him. The hotel banquet room at the Concourse is about half full when I roll in. I eyeball the crowd and put it between 150 and 200 people. (Later, Wispolitics.com would estimate the crowd at 500, which I think is wildly overstated.)

A couple of Huckabee’s campaign workers circle the room. Having worked dozens of campaigns myself, it’s easy to spot a campaign worker. They always have an ill-fitting suit that probably actually looked good when the campaign started – yet months of late nights and junk food have shrunk it two sizes. They have sunken eyes, the complexion of chalk, and no will to live.

Some unidentifiable country music begins to play in the background. Country music and Republican politics now, unfortunately, go hand-in-hand like cheese curds and ranch dressing. After about two songs, I call my sister to make sure we’re actually not married.

I ran into Steve Eggleston, who got some much-deserved national publicity for his post pointing out that McCain only needed 24 percent of the vote from here on out to win the nomination.

One of the things I notice about the event is the lack of security. There are a couple guys talking into their sleeves, but no pat downs or coat checks on the way in. I chat with a reporter and we agree that we shouldn’t check the polls to see who’s winning the race, we just need to figure out how many secret service people are assigned to each campaign. Huckabee’s lack of security detail befitted his long-shot status.

One of the down sides of the New York Giants beating the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl is that it allows Huckabee to stand up and compare his situation to that of the underdog Giants. Apparently, Huckabee used this talking point in a Wisconsin speech yesterday, and it went over like a lead balloon. He had likely forgotten that the Giants had beaten the Packers in the NFC Championship game, which is still a sore subject in the Dairy State. He should have focused on a more pleasant topic, like incest.

Huckabee hits the stage, introduced by Tim Michels – who reportedly ran for something once. Apparently, there\’s evidence on the internet of this. Michels says that while talk radio has gone after Huckabee for not being conservative, Huckabee has been endorsed by the Minutemen. Well, that settles it.

Huckabee starts his speech with a smart move – by appealing to Wisconsin’s desire for national press. He says that if McCain wins, Wisconsin will be forgotten – yet if Wisconsin goes to Huckabee, the national press will blather on about the Badger State ad nauseam. There’s nothing Wisconsin residents crave more than positive press about their state. There seems to be a burning desire to be nationally relevant – and for reasons other than people having sex with corpses.

Huckabee went on to tell a story about singing the National Anthem at Lambeau Field during the 2004 Bush campaign. I stood near the back of the room, which made me feel suspiciously like Travis Bickle at a Palantine rally. Fortunately, my mohawk has grown back in.

He uses his big applause line about how he wants to get rid of the IRS (it might actually be easier to pass a bill through Congress that eliminates the letters “I,” “R,” and “S” from the English language). He indicates his support for a constitutional amendment to protect the unborn. When making a point about protecting life, he begins to cite the Declaration of Independence – obviously about to reference the guarantee of “life.” On the way to that point, he says “We hold these truths to be self-evident…” and some woman begins clapping wildly by herself. Apparently, she was a big fan of Self-Evidence. Woo! Huckabee ignored her and made his way to the intended applause line.

When discussing valuing human life, Huckabee used an example that I thought was really good. He pointed out that in the field of battle, our soldiers go out of their way to save their wounded comrades, because we do value life so much. That contrasted nicely with his portrayal of militant Islam, who sends children out to die for the cause. I hadn’t heard the whole sanctity of life argument posed that way before, and thought it was a nice touch.

Huckabee pointed out that he was the first male in his bloodline to graduate from high school. I never understood how this was an effective talking point. Should be give politicians credit for the fact that their family members are uneducated? Should I be ashamed that my father is a lawyer? Wait – don’t answer that.

The applause dies down as Huckabee goes on, until he gets to immigration, which perks the crowd up. He then introduces a 14-year old kid who claims to have made 1,000 calls on Huckabee’s behalf. The crowd oohs and ahhhs, while I cringe. How does this kid not have time to do regular 14-year old kid stuff? Buy that kid a Playstation. Obviously, his family didn’t get the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition this week – that little guy would have spent more time in the bathroom than on the phone.

The single most asked question of Huckabee these days is “why are you still in the race?” But when you see the flood of press that still follows him around, you can understand why. When is Mike Huckabee going to ever have a national stage like this again? Politicians like to be heard – why wouldn’t Huckabee keep talking as long as the media are paying attention?

In closing, Huckabee has said he’s staying around until the convention. Someone call Mitt Romney and ask how that promise went.

In a sea of fascinating storylines having to do with the 2008 presidential race, I think Barack Obama\’s troubles with Latino voters has to be among the most interesting. According to some reports, Obama lost the Hispanic vote in places like California and Arizona by nearly 40 percent. Yet nobody has really provided a decent explanation as to why that might be the case. Most media reports gloss over any real reasons, because they may be afraid at what they find. In fact, by reporting that \”Hispanic voters won\’t vote for Obama\” without providing a rationale, it really stains the reputation of Latinos and brands them as bigots.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, himself of Hispanic origin, took a weak stab at it by saying Latino voters appreciated the fact that the Clintons appointed Hispanics to cabinet positions. This, of course, is complete nonsense – if there\’s one trait that brings Americans of all nationalities together, it is a complete lack of knowledge of anything regarding cabinet appointees.

Last night, after my Obama moment, my buddy and I went to have a few beers. As is our custom, we left the bar at about 11:00 and headed to our favorite Mexican restaurant on Madison\’s west side. (Here\’s a hint – you are able to obtain a burrito as big as your head there – provided your head isn\’t freakishly large.) As we sat down to inhale our steak burritos, I happened to catch a glimpse of a \”Voz Latina\” newspaper. On the front page, there was a huge picture of Barack Obama, accompanied by this story:

Obama: Indocumentados no son responsables de problemas economicos

\”Atributir esos problemas a los inmigrantes es buscar un chivo expiatorio\”

LOS ANGELES – El precandidato democrata Barack Obama sostuvo el jueves que la desocupacion y la inseguridad economica no son generados por la presencia de indocumentadoes en el pais.

I took three years of Spanish in high school, so I can pretty much get what that is saying – Obama is reaching out to Hispanic voters by telling them illegal immigrants aren\’t the cause of America\’s economic problems. But it was bugging me that I couldn\’t understand exactly what it was saying. For all I knew, Obama made this statement about illegal immigrants, then started juggling flaming meatballs. So to figure out what the article said, I asked for help.

I walked up to the two young men at the front of the store – one was working the grill and one was working the register. I asked the guy at the register if he could read the first part of it for me \”en ingles.\” He chuckled a little, then looked at the front page of the paper that I handed him. It was clear he didn\’t speak much ingles himself. He started out, \”uhhhhhh…. inmigracion…,\” and then he stopped. He started pointing to the picture of Obama and saying \”NO, NO, NO!\” I asked him if he liked Obama, and he again said \”NO, NO, NO!\” (Of course, he may have been doing an Amy Winehouse impersonation.)

He repeatedly pointed to Obama\’s picture, and started saying \”No inmigracion.\” His buddy cooking the burritos agreed with him. He then pointed to a picture of George W. Bush on the page, and said \”Yes.\”

It didn\’t take too long to decipher what he was saying. He didn\’t like Obama because he thought Obama was too weak on immigration. These guys (who essentially admitted to us that their legal status was, um…. questionable) had come to this country and made a decent living for themselves. Now, they are all for shutting the borders down, knowing there\’s always going to be a poor Mexican worker willing to do their job for less money. And they really don\’t want the competition. That\’s why they both had such a favorable opinion of George W. Bush – his plan let them stay here, and eliminated the competition from the South.

I asked one of the guys (in my broken Spanglish) if he had any familia back in Mexico that he wants to come to the U.S. He said he did, but they can stay there as long as he sends them money. Basically, he doesn\’t want to upset the system he has going for him right now. He also said that Mexico is on the rise, and that soon all the white Americans will want to live there. He mentioned that all the Americans that do live there have really big houses, and that he doesn\’t like that.

All in all, those guys were really honest and forthright about their views on inmigracion. And they seemed ecstatic that someone would actually care what they thought. But our discussion was fascinating, in that it started to explain some of the Hispanic dislike of Obama – something the media might pick up if they would just go ask regular Latinos what they think. 

Oh, and the burrito – delicioso.

Tonight, I stood face to face with Barack Obama. 

My lefty buddies implored me to head down to the Obama rally at the Kohl Center here in Madison.  Me being the political enthusiast I am, I agreed – thinking, at the very least, I\’d get some good fodder for a blog post.

I met my buddy Barrett and his wife JJ at the coffee shop they own on Regent Street.  The plan was to walk down to the Kohl Center from there.  We had heard the line to get in was enormous, so we thought we\’d wait as long as possible to head down.  Rumor had it that speakers would begin at 8:00, so we decided to walk down at 7:30.

As we approached the corner of Park and Regent (right next to the Kohl Center), we were met by some people who said that they weren\’t letting anyone else in to the rally.  I couldn\’t believe my ears – the Kohl Center seats nearly 20,000 people.  But they said they were turned away.  One guy said he had talked to a cop who said Obama\’s caravan would be driving by that very corner soon.  The fact that the police had blocked this area off gave this guy\’s story some credibility.

Suddenly, down Regent Street, someone saw some cop cars and buses coming.  One could only guess that this was Obama\’s entourage.  I figured there would be a bunch of cars, then Obama\’s limo, with tinted windows, and the whole thing would be a lost cause.  But we waited.

A police car drove by us and took a right.  Then a large black SUV took the same right.  I looked in the passenger side back seat, and saw Obama smiling and waving.  He was ten feet from me.  He waved at me.  I waved back.

The women in our little group shrieked with delight.  Barrett\’s wife almost melted at the sight of the now-presidential frontrunner.  Previous to tonight, she had fed us a line about how she was undecided in the Democratic primary.  But it\’s pretty clear that Obama smiling at her sealed the deal.  Apparently, the leader of the free world will be chosen based not on any of his actual plans, but on the fact that he drove within ten feet of some adoring female fans.

As a counter, Barrett and I decided that we will fawn in a similar way over Hillary Clinton whenever she makes an appearance in Madison.  Imagine how ridiculous that would be – Hillary waves at me and suddenly I become putty in her hands.  Certainly the best way to pick a president.

Having been turned away from the Kohl Center, we decided to watch the speech downtown at the Old Fashioned restaurant.  It was eerie how the whole bar stopped to watch the speech – unlike anything I had seen.  I couldn\’t believe, based on the video from the speech, how many people were actually there.  I had read a press report about Obama\’s popularity that cited an attendance of 6,000 at a speech he had given in Missouri.  If he truly did fill up the Kohl Center, this speech had to triple that.  Absolutely amazing.

Barrett joked that Mike Huckabee will probably hold his first Madison campaign rally at the Old Country Buffet on East Washington.  I couldn\’t disagree.

During political campaigns, the chattering classes can be deafening with their pronouncements about how “historic” or “groundbreaking” the current campaign is. Yet history will almost always tell us otherwise.

In 1888, Oxford professor (and American government enthusiast) James Bryce wrote “Why Great Men Are Not Chosen President.” European authors are often the best observers of things Americans may not see in ourselves (Tocqueville being the most famous example.) Despite being 120 years old, modern conservatives will immediately sympathize with some of Bryce’s observations as to why Americans end up with less than stellar presidential candidates. The following selection is a little lengthy, but well worth the read (my emphasis has been added.)

Several reasons may be suggested for the fact, which Americans are themselves the first to admit.

One is that the proportion of first-rate ability drawn into politics is smaller in America than in most European countries. This is a phenomenon whose causes must be elucidated later: in the meantime it is enough to say that in France, where the half-revolutionary conditions that lasted for some time after 1870, made public life exciting and accessible; in Germany, where an admirably organized civil service cultivates and develops statecraft with unusual success; in England, where many persons of wealth and leisure seek to enter the political arena, while burning questions touch the interests of all classes and make men eager observers of the combatants, the total quantity of talent devoted to parliamentary or administrative work has been larger, relatively to the population, than in America, where much of the best ability, both for thought and for action, for planning and for executing, rushes into a field which is comparatively narrow in Europe, the business of developing the material resources of the country.

Another is that the methods and habits of Congress, and indeed of political life generally, seem to give fewer opportunities for personal distinction, fewer modes in which a man may commend himself to his countrymen by eminent capacity in thought, in speech, or in administration, than is the case in the free countries of Europe.

[…]

A third reason is that eminent men make more enemies, and give those enemies more assailable points, than obscure men do. They are therefore in so far less desirable candidates. It is true that the eminent man has also made more friends, that his name is more widely known, and may be greeted with louder cheers. Other things being equal, the famous man is preferable. But other things never are equal. The famous man has probably attacked some leaders in his own party, has supplanted others, has expressed his dislike to the crotchet of some active section, has perhaps committed errors which are capable of being magnified into offences. No man stands long before the public and bears a part in great affairs without giving openings to censorious criticism. Fiercer far than the light which beats upon a throne is the light which beats upon a presidential candidate, searching out all the recesses of his past life. Hence, when the choice lies between a brilliant man and a safe man, the safe man is preferred. Party feeling, strong enough to carry in on its back a man without conspicuous positive merits, is not always strong enough to procure forgiveness for a man with positive faults.

A European finds that this phenomenon needs in its turn to be explained, for in the free countries of Europe brilliancy, be it eloquence in speech, or some striking achievement in war or administration, or the power through whatever means of somehow impressing the popular imagination, is what makes a leader triumphant. Why should it be otherwise in America? Because in America party loyalty and party organization have been hitherto so perfect that anyone put forward by the party will get the full party vote if his character is good and his “record,” as they call it, unstained. The safe candidate may not draw in quite so many votes from the moderate men of the other side as the brilliant one would, but he will not lose nearly so many from his own ranks. Even those who admit his mediocrity will vote straight when the moment for voting comes. Besides, the ordinary American voter does not object to mediocrity. He has a lower conception of the qualities requisite to make a statesman than those who direct public opinion in Europe have. He likes his candidate to be sensible, vigorous, and, above all, what he calls “magnetic,” and does not value, because he sees no need for, originality or profundity, a fine culture or a wide knowledge. Candidates are selected to be run for nomination by knots of persons who, however expert as party tacticians, are usually commonplace men; and the choice between those selected for nomination is made by a very large body, an assembly of nearly a thousand delegates from the local party organizations over the country, who are certainly no better than ordinary citizens.

[…]

It must also be remembered that the merits of a president are one thing and those of a candidate another thing. An eminent American is reported to have said to friends who wished to put him forward, “Gentlemen, let there be no mistake. I should make a good president, but a very bad candidate.” Now to a party it is more important that its nominee should be a good candidate than that he should turn out a good president. A nearer danger is a greater danger. As Saladin says in The Talisman, “A wild cat in a chamber is more dangerous than a lion in a distant desert.” It will be a misfortune to the party, as well as to the country, if the candidate elected should prove a bad president. But it is a greater misfortune to the party that it should be beaten in the impending election, for the evil of losing national patronage will have come four years sooner. “B” (so reason the leaders), “who is one of our possible candidates, may be an abler man than A, who is the other. But we have a better chance of winning with A than with B, while X, the candidate of our opponents, is anyhow no better than A. We must therefore run A.” This reasoning is all the more forcible because the previous career of the possible candidates has generally made it easier to say who will succeed as a candidate than who will succeed as a president; and because the wire-pullers with whom the choice rests are better judges of the former question than of the latter.

So while pundits continue to express disbelief about whether a certain Republican is the right choice for the party, remember how little things have changed over the last century. While we all sat on our couches and watched Super Tuesday results last week, we didn’t know that Bryce essentially called the Republican primary over 120 years ago. The GOP found their “safe man,” and they’re riding him into the general election – adhering strictly to the script.

(Interestingly, Bryce considers the “brilliant” man to be the one who has criticized his own party and made enemies.  Yet in this race, it turns out somehow that the candidate that has gone that route has also become the “safest” pick.) 

During political campaigns, the chattering classes can be deafening with their pronouncements about how \”historic\” or \”groundbreaking\” the current campaign is. Yet history will almost always tell us otherwise.

In 1888, Oxford professor (and American government enthusiast) James Bryce wrote \”Why Great Men Are Not Chosen President.\” European authors are often the best observers of things Americans may not see in ourselves (Tocqueville being the most famous example.) Despite being 120 years old, modern conservatives will immediately sympathize with some of Bryce\’s observations as to why Americans end up with less than stellar presidential candidates. The following selection is a little lengthy, but well worth the read (my emphasis has been added.)

Several reasons may be suggested for the fact, which Americans are themselves the first to admit.

One is that the proportion of first-rate ability drawn into politics is smaller in America than in most European countries. This is a phenomenon whose causes must be elucidated later: in the meantime it is enough to say that in France, where the half-revolutionary conditions that lasted for some time after 1870, made public life exciting and accessible; in Germany, where an admirably organized civil service cultivates and develops statecraft with unusual success; in England, where many persons of wealth and leisure seek to enter the political arena, while burning questions touch the interests of all classes and make men eager observers of the combatants, the total quantity of talent devoted to parliamentary or administrative work has been larger, relatively to the population, than in America, where much of the best ability, both for thought and for action, for planning and for executing, rushes into a field which is comparatively narrow in Europe, the business of developing the material resources of the country.

Another is that the methods and habits of Congress, and indeed of political life generally, seem to give fewer opportunities for personal distinction, fewer modes in which a man may commend himself to his countrymen by eminent capacity in thought, in speech, or in administration, than is the case in the free countries of Europe.

[…]

A third reason is that eminent men make more enemies, and give those enemies more assailable points, than obscure men do. They are therefore in so far less desirable candidates. It is true that the eminent man has also made more friends, that his name is more widely known, and may be greeted with louder cheers. Other things being equal, the famous man is preferable. But other things never are equal. The famous man has probably attacked some leaders in his own party, has supplanted others, has expressed his dislike to the crotchet of some active section, has perhaps committed errors which are capable of being magnified into offences. No man stands long before the public and bears a part in great affairs without giving openings to censorious criticism. Fiercer far than the light which beats upon a throne is the light which beats upon a presidential candidate, searching out all the recesses of his past life. Hence, when the choice lies between a brilliant man and a safe man, the safe man is preferred. Party feeling, strong enough to carry in on its back a man without conspicuous positive merits, is not always strong enough to procure forgiveness for a man with positive faults.

A European finds that this phenomenon needs in its turn to be explained, for in the free countries of Europe brilliancy, be it eloquence in speech, or some striking achievement in war or administration, or the power through whatever means of somehow impressing the popular imagination, is what makes a leader triumphant. Why should it be otherwise in America? Because in America party loyalty and party organization have been hitherto so perfect that anyone put forward by the party will get the full party vote if his character is good and his “record,” as they call it, unstained. The safe candidate may not draw in quite so many votes from the moderate men of the other side as the brilliant one would, but he will not lose nearly so many from his own ranks. Even those who admit his mediocrity will vote straight when the moment for voting comes. Besides, the ordinary American voter does not object to mediocrity. He has a lower conception of the qualities requisite to make a statesman than those who direct public opinion in Europe have. He likes his candidate to be sensible, vigorous, and, above all, what he calls “magnetic,” and does not value, because he sees no need for, originality or profundity, a fine culture or a wide knowledge. Candidates are selected to be run for nomination by knots of persons who, however expert as party tacticians, are usually commonplace men; and the choice between those selected for nomination is made by a very large body, an assembly of nearly a thousand delegates from the local party organizations over the country, who are certainly no better than ordinary citizens.

[…]

It must also be remembered that the merits of a president are one thing and those of a candidate another thing. An eminent American is reported to have said to friends who wished to put him forward, “Gentlemen, let there be no mistake. I should make a good president, but a very bad candidate.” Now to a party it is more important that its nominee should be a good candidate than that he should turn out a good president. A nearer danger is a greater danger. As Saladin says in The Talisman, “A wild cat in a chamber is more dangerous than a lion in a distant desert.” It will be a misfortune to the party, as well as to the country, if the candidate elected should prove a bad president. But it is a greater misfortune to the party that it should be beaten in the impending election, for the evil of losing national patronage will have come four years sooner. “B” (so reason the leaders), “who is one of our possible candidates, may be an abler man than A, who is the other. But we have a better chance of winning with A than with B, while X, the candidate of our opponents, is anyhow no better than A. We must therefore run A.” This reasoning is all the more forcible because the previous career of the possible candidates has generally made it easier to say who will succeed as a candidate than who will succeed as a president; and because the wire-pullers with whom the choice rests are better judges of the former question than of the latter.

So while pundits continue to express disbelief about whether a certain Republican is the right choice for the party, remember how little things have changed over the last century. While we all sat on our couches and watched Super Tuesday results last week, we didn\’t know that Bryce essentially called the Republican primary over 120 years ago. The GOP found their \”safe man,\” and they\’re riding him into the general election – adhering strictly to the script.

(Interestingly, Bryce considers the \”brilliant\” man to be the one who has criticized his own party and made enemies.  Yet in this race, it turns out somehow that the candidate that has gone that route has also become the \”safest\” pick.)